Wind RazorgaleTier 1
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
27
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
190
87-74-29
overall winrate
53.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1305
· range 1124–1549
(27 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 43 | 16-17-10 | 48.8% | 48.9% | 47.1% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 17 | 10-4-3 | 67.6% | 64.3% | 64.9% | +5.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 23 | 8-11-4 | 43.5% | 44.4% | 45.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 15 | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 42.0% | -3.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 48.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 17 | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 47.6% | 48.4% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 14 | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 42.2% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 56.3% | +2.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 71.8% | +11.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 74.6% | +13.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 60.8% | +5.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 24.2% | -14.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.3% | +16.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
Decklists · 27 from this event
The 27 public Wind Razorgale decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Stifling Trap, Turbo Charge. Losers more often ran: Ardent Cloudstriker, Escape the Wreckage, Unbroken Mustang.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Diablerie
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Ardent Cloudstriker
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Escape the Wreckage
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Dematerialize
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.67 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.44 | 1 | 5 | 3 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.44 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.22 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Dematerialize | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Diablerie | +0.11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Cyclical Breeze | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Three Visits | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Green Slime | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disorienting Winds | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 |