Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
17
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
136
47-72-17
overall winrate
40.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.2%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
42.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309
· median 1329
· range 1119–1648
(17 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 25 | 8-12-5 | 42.0% | 43.1% | 42.7% | -2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 20 | 7-12-1 | 37.5% | 39.6% | 36.2% | -5.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 17 | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 51.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 12 | 3-9-0 | 25.0% | 31.2% | 31.1% | -8.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.1% | +1.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | -15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 9 | 3-4-2 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 44.0% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 23.2% | -11.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 57.5% | +3.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.0% | +7.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +7.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
Decklists · 17 from this event
The 17 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Flame Sweep, Crux Sight. Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Ignite the Soul, Nullifying Mirror.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Indolent Leisure
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Disintegrate
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Ignite the Soul
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Wisdom | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Savage Attack | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |