Wind AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
32
(10.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
232
110-104-18
overall winrate
51.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1325
· range 1094–1632
(32 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 44 | 22-19-3 | 53.4% | 53.1% | 54.2% | +1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 17 | 4-10-3 | 32.4% | 35.7% | 35.1% | -5.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 21 | 16-5-0 | 76.2% | 72.0% | 72.9% | +8.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 19 | 6-13-0 | 31.6% | 34.8% | 35.1% | -5.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 21 | 4-15-2 | 23.8% | 28.0% | 27.3% | -8.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 20 | 12-7-1 | 62.5% | 60.4% | 63.8% | +5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 16 | 10-4-2 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 62.9% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 15 | 6-9-0 | 40.0% | 42.1% | 48.2% | -0.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 16 | 9-6-1 | 59.4% | 57.5% | 59.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 72.7% | +13.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.3% | -2.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -3.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 57.2% | +5.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +9.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
Decklists · 32 from this event
The 32 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Safeguard Amulet, Aesan Protector, Eternal Magistrate. Losers more often ran: Rose, Eternal Paragon, Viridian Protective Trinket, Liu Bei, Oathkeeper.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Eternal Magistrate
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Poisoned Coating Oil
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Cry for Help
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Rose, Eternal Paragon
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Eye of Argus
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Oath of the Sakura
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 80 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.42 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.25 | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.25 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| Zephyr | +0.25 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -0.17 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Displace | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lena, Dorumegia's Herald | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Backstep | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Second Wind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |