Fire ArcaneTier 3
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
2
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-10-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1365
· median 1365
· range 1124–1607
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.5% | -10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.9% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.6 |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
