Water Crux MageTier 3
at Ascent Santa Clara
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.9% | -2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.0% | -0.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.7% | -29.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cone of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Freeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbinder Apostle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |