Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
19
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
167
100-52-15
overall winrate
64.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.1%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
61.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1452
· median 1447
· range 1201–1689
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
63% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 36 | 21-12-3 | 62.5% | 61.3% | 55.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 21 | 15-4-2 | 76.2% | 72.0% | 72.7% | +8.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 51.8% | +0.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 15 | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 43.6% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 54.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 79.0% | +15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 69.8% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 36.2% | -5.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 18 | 9-8-1 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 43.1% | -2.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.7% | +0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +11.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.1% | +15.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -8.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 65.2% | +11.3 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 14 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Fragmented Spirit of Water, Crimson Protective Trinket, Tariff Ring. Losers more often ran: Torrential Blast, Spirit of Water, Water Barrier.
Fragmented Spirit of Water
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Crimson Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Cerulean Decree
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 2.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Torrential Blast
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Spirit of Water
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Water Barrier
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Desperate Dive
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Tideholder Claymore
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Primordial Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrential Blast | -0.36 | 2 | 7 | 5 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.36 | 3 | 8 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.29 | 5 | 1 | 8 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.29 | 3 | 7 | 4 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.29 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.29 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Desperate Dive | -0.21 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.21 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.21 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.14 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Barter Herbs | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stream of Consciousness | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
| Tide Diviner | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Herbs | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intrepid Highwayman | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 11 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 11 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 11 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 11 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Perfect Repulsion | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.07 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 |