Water Tera KongmingTier 3
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
3
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
7-12-2
overall winrate
38.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1228
· median 1193
· range 1165–1327
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -17.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.6% | -13.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
