← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 28 | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 40.6% | 39.8% | -3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 10 | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 44.9% | -2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 68.2% | +9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 60.3% | +5.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 72.3% | +12.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 30.0% | -10.7 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.7% | +6.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.8% | -4.0 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |