← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025

decks
13 (5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
118 70-33-15
overall winrate
65.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5% avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
62.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1449 · median 1472 · range 1151–1619 (13 pilots with an ELO rating)
941 Q1 1203 Q3 1403 1633
77% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 8% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 33.3% 34 22-10-2 67.6% 65.8% 64.2% +5.1
Wind Shadowstrike 14.9% 11 7-0-4 81.8% 73.3% 70.5% +8.9
Fire Suzaku 8.4% 9 8-1-0 88.9% 76.9% 71.1% +9.8
Fire Aggro 6.8% 11 4-7-0 36.4% 40.0% 35.9% -6.1
Fire Suited 5.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.1% +11.6
Fire Crux Mage 5.2% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 57.3% +3.9
Wind Allies 4.8% 11 3-6-2 36.4% 40.0% 39.0% -4.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.0% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 70.0% +10.7
Water Genbu 4.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.0% +4.8
Wind Seiryuu 3.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.4% +1.8
Water Fractal 3.2% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 60.8% +6.9
Water Allies 2.8% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.4% -2.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.4% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 51.0% +0.6
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.1% +11.4
Slimes 2.0% 0
Water Aetherwing 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +8.9
Fire Exia 1.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.0% +1.7
Wind Astra Cleric 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.4
Fire Oblation 1.2% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.2% 0
Fire Aetherwing 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.7% -22.9
Water Umbra Guardian 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 0.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 51.4% +1.3
Wind Razorgale 0.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.2
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.8% 0
Fire Allen 0.4% 0
Fire Arcane 0.4% 0
Fire Ciel 0.4% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.4% 0
Fire Neos 0.4% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 0.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.9% +5.7
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.4% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Norm Tera Silvie 0.4% 0
Water Diana 0.4% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 0
Water Umbra Ciel 0.4% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.4% 0
Wind Crux Mage 0.4% 0
Wind Overlord 0.4% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.4% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Vanish from Sight.

Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

Played more by losers
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Vanish from Sight
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing +0.67 2 0 0
Planted Explosive -0.67 0 2 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.67 0 2 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.67 2 0 0
Regal Inquisition +0.67 2 0 1
Portentous Tanggu -0.67 0 2 1
Reduce to Ash +0.33 1 0 2
Luxera's Map +0.33 1 0 2
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.33 0 1 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +0.33 1 0 2
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.33 1 2 0
Vanish from Sight -0.33 1 2 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 1 0 2
Striking Illuminance -0.33 0 1 2
Blinding Orb -0.33 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -0.33 0 1 2
Thieving Cut +0.33 1 0 2
Art of War +0.33 1 0 2
Varuckan Acolyte -0.33 0 1 0
Juggle Knives +0.00 1 1 1
Exploit Vulnerability +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/31452/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin