← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Water Astra RangerTier 3
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 35.6% | -6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.4% | -12.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.5% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guided Starlight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanishing Eclipse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pleiades, Celestial Genesis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chateau de Coeurs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meteoric Volley | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cometary Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Radiant Vega | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suspicious Concoction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alacritous Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poised Occlusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aethercloak Sentinel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sidereal Spellshot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |