← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
decks
21
(8.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
191
91-94-6
overall winrate
49.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1334
· median 1383
· range 1100–1571
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1203
Q3 1403
1633
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 58 | 22-33-3 | 40.5% | 41.1% | 42.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 18 | 9-8-1 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 53.7% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 14 | 10-4-0 | 71.4% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +4.3 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 13 | 10-3-0 | 76.9% | 70.6% | 60.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 52.5% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 28.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 31.8% | -9.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 69.6% | +10.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.7% | -7.9 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 44.8% | -2.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.3% | +19.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.2% | -11.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Intensified Pyre, Blazing Throw, Demolition. Losers more often ran: Shatter the Brittle, Guo Jia, Blessed Scion, Embercrypt Burn.
Intensified Pyre
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Blazing Throw
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Demolition
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Flamewreath Call
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Shatter the Brittle
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Embercrypt Burn
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intensified Pyre | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Infernal Manastreak | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Poisonous Apple | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Flickering Cinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |