← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 24 | 11-11-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 17 | 8-5-4 | 58.8% | 57.1% | 65.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.5% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 42.2% | -4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +6.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 61.4% | +5.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 4 | 1-0-3 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.0% | -2.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.1% | +1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.5% | +4.8 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.2% | +6.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |