← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Water Umbra GuardianTier 3
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
decks
2
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
4-13-2
overall winrate
26.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
38.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1135
· median 1135
· range 1058–1212
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1203
Q3 1403
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.9% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
