← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
decks
4
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
13-12-13
overall winrate
51.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1312
· range 1128–1493
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1203
Q3 1403
1633
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 51.2% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.6% | -9.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
