Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
7
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
76
48-20-8
overall winrate
68.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
60.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368
· median 1393
· range 1253–1450
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 20 | 13-5-2 | 70.0% | 66.7% | 57.3% | +2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 47.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 63.6% | +8.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 58.8% | +4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +8.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
