Fire OblationTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 24 | 3-20-1 | 14.6% | 19.6% | 26.9% | -8.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +1.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 27.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.5% | -9.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.5% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.9% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.9% | -7.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.8 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Fast Cure. Losers more often ran: Umbra Sight, Regal Inquisition.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |