Fire Umbra RangerTier 3
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
4
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
15-23-0
overall winrate
39.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1157
· range 1122–1243
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 44.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.6% | -4.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
