Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
20
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
201
105-77-19
overall winrate
57.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1353
· median 1309
· range 1165–1694
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
5% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 45 | 23-20-2 | 53.3% | 53.1% | 53.5% | +1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 19 | 14-3-2 | 78.9% | 73.9% | 70.3% | +7.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 47.1% | -1.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 10 | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 40.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.7% | +6.2 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -4.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 40.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 56.8% | +3.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 56.7% | +2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 9 | 5-2-2 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 60.5% | +4.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 45.5% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 69.7% | +12.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 60.6% | +5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.4% | -13.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 67.6% | +11.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 66.2% | +8.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 20 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Uncover the Plot, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Grand Crusader's Ring.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Uncover the Plot
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Wind | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reprogram | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hypothermia | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |