Water Tera MageTier 3
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
2
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
8-16-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
39.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1203
· median 1203
· range 1185–1220
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 43.2% | -3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 74.5% | +23.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
