← 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional

Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional

decks
8 (2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
79 42-27-10
overall winrate
59.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0% avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
57.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1337 · median 1332 · range 1173–1536 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1185 Q3 1366 1730
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 41.2% 26 16-6-4 69.2% 66.7% 63.4% +4.9
Wind Shadowstrike 11.8% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 45.0% -3.2
Fire Suzaku 8.5% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 59.5% +6.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 7.4% 10 5-4-1 55.0% 53.6% 54.5% +2.0
Wind Seiryuu 5.1% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 48.6% -0.8
Fire Aggro 4.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 55.0% +3.7
Fire Oblation 4.4% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 60.1% +7.5
Fire Suited 4.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.9% +9.4
Horse and Taxes 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.2% +8.4
Water Aetherwing 4.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 68.0% +17.3
Water Allies 3.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.4
Fire Crux Mage 2.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.5% -21.6
Wind Allies 2.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.6% -10.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.6% 3 1-0-2 66.7% 57.1% 61.2% +8.4
Fire Exia 2.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.7% +9.1
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.6% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.4% +13.8
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.6% -10.2
Water Fractal 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.2% -10.8
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.5% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.5% 0
Slimes 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.7
Water Astra Ranger 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.3
Water Genbu 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.0
Fire Slimes 1.1% 0
Fire Aetherwing 0.7% 0
Fire Arcane 0.7% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.7% 0
Fire Tera Mage 0.7% 0
Water Neos 0.7% 0
Water Tera Mage 0.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 32.7% -16.6
Wind Astra Cleric 0.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.0% -17.6
Wind Razorgale 0.7% 0
Fire Neos 0.4% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.4% 0
Water Beast 0.4% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 0
Water Slimes 0.4% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.4% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 0.4% 0
Wind Byakko 0.4% 0
Wind Ciel 0.4% 0
Wind Exia 0.4% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.3% +2.1
Wind Slice & Dice 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.1% +22.6
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Displace +1.00 2 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 2 0 0
Backup Charger +1.00 2 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 2 0 0
Pride's Vanguard +1.00 2 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 2 0 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 2 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 2 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 2 0 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 2 0
Academy Guide -1.00 0 2 0
Annul Spell +1.00 2 0 0
Spirit Blade: Dispersion -0.50 0 1 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +0.50 1 0 1
Yuan Shao, Crown General -0.50 0 1 0
Cry for Help +0.50 1 0 1
Eternal Magistrate -0.50 0 1 0
Favorable Winds +0.50 1 0 1
Crystallized Destiny +0.50 1 0 1
Excalibur, Reflected Edge -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate +0.50 1 0 1
Rally the Peasants +0.50 1 0 1
Rose, Eternal Paragon -0.50 0 1 1
Banner Knight +0.50 1 0 1
Ghosts of Pendragon +0.50 1 0 1
Dungeon Guide +0.50 1 0 1
Nefarious Timepiece +0.50 1 0 1
Tempest Downfall +0.50 1 0 1
Sovereign Sanctuary -0.50 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 1
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 0
Brackish Lutist -0.50 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter -0.50 0 1 0
Zephyr -0.50 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace -0.50 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 0
Cleansing Reunion -0.50 0 1 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 0
Lorraine, Crux Knight -0.50 0 1 0
Expeditious Opening -0.50 0 1 0
Spirit Blade: Ensoul -0.50 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.50 0 1 0
Votive Runeblade -0.50 0 1 0
Zephyr's Edge -0.50 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide +0.00 1 1 0
Staggering Strike +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32253/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine