Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 26 | 16-6-4 | 69.2% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.5% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 54.5% | +2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.6% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.0% | +3.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Displace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rally the Peasants | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |