Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
6
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
68
30-34-4
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1289
· median 1325
· range 1113–1453
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 23 | 10-12-1 | 45.7% | 46.3% | 46.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 56.1% | +2.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.1% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
