Water Astra RangerTier 3
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
4
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
9-19-6
overall winrate
35.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.0%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
41.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1200
· median 1145
· range 1094–1418
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 11 | 2-6-3 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 43.0% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
