Water AetherwingTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
11
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
101
36-55-10
overall winrate
40.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
40.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268
· median 1236
· range 1069–1576
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 29 | 8-18-3 | 32.8% | 34.8% | 39.3% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 13 | 4-7-2 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 44.3% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 43.2% | -3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.2% | -14.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +2.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0% | -17.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.3% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.7% | +17.9 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Dissuading Aether, Drown in Aether, Cerulean Decree. Losers more often ran: Aetheric Calibration, Reposition, Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor.
Dissuading Aether
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Drown in Aether
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cerulean Decree
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Backstep
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Aetheric Calibration
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Reposition
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Rangefinder | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rescue the Heir | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Undertow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |