Water FractalTier 3
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
decks
5
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55
23-30-2
overall winrate
43.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1366
· median 1273
· range 1205–1568
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1185
Q3 1366
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 17 | 5-11-1 | 32.4% | 35.7% | 30.8% | -7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.6% | -6.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 32.4% | -11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.6% | +2.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
