Fire RileTier 1

at 貓腳印松江店地區賽 Regional

decks

112 (41.2% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

793 391-341-61

overall winrate

53.2%

ELO-adjusted winrate

52.3% avg ELO +0.7 per match

expected value

52.8% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1292 · median 1283 · range 1074–1730 (112 pilots with an ELO rating)

807 Q1 1185 Q3 1366 1730

28% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike	11.8%	99	52-41-6	55.6%	55.3%	54.0%	+1.3
Fire Suzaku	8.5%	74	37-35-2	51.4%	51.3%	48.6%	-0.5
Fire Luxem Assassin	7.4%	45	20-23-2	46.7%	46.9%	46.5%	-1.2
Wind Seiryuu	5.1%	48	14-28-6	35.4%	36.5%	37.9%	-4.2
Fire Aggro	4.4%	44	24-19-1	55.7%	55.2%	55.8%	+2.0
Fire Oblation	4.4%	24	20-3-1	85.4%	80.4%	73.1%	+8.6
Fire Suited	4.4%	33	15-15-3	50.0%	50.0%	49.7%	-0.1
Horse and Taxes	4.0%	31	15-16-0	48.4%	48.6%	48.3%	-0.6
Water Aetherwing	4.0%	29	18-8-3	67.2%	65.2%	60.7%	+3.9
Water Allies	3.3%	31	13-15-3	46.8%	47.1%	53.9%	+1.4
Fire Crux Mage	2.9%	15	7-7-1	50.0%	50.0%	50.7%	+0.3
Wind Allies	2.9%	25	12-10-3	54.0%	53.4%	56.5%	+2.4
Wind Crux Lorraine	2.9%	26	6-16-4	30.8%	33.3%	36.6%	-4.9
Fire Crux Lorraine	2.6%	20	5-13-2	30.0%	33.3%	42.7%	-2.8
Fire Exia	2.6%	22	6-14-2	31.8%	34.6%	37.8%	-4.6
Wind Wakeup Combo	2.6%	20	11-7-2	60.0%	58.3%	47.4%	-1.0
Fire Umbra Guardian	2.2%	23	12-10-1	54.3%	53.7%	53.9%	+1.5
Fire Crux Hybrid	1.8%	16	5-10-1	34.4%	37.5%	42.0%	-3.2
Water Fractal	1.8%	17	11-5-1	67.6%	64.3%	69.2%	+7.6
Fire Firebloom Burn	1.5%	19	7-11-1	39.5%	41.3%	36.3%	-5.3
Fire Umbra Ranger	1.5%	13	8-5-0	61.5%	58.8%	55.4%	+2.3
Slimes	1.5%	6	4-0-2	83.3%	70.0%	63.5%	+7.2
Water Astra Ranger	1.5%	11	6-2-3	68.2%	63.3%	57.0%	+3.0
Water Genbu	1.5%	18	9-7-2	55.6%	54.5%	65.2%	+6.0
Fire Slimes	1.1%	11	6-4-1	59.1%	56.7%	49.5%	-0.2
Fire Aetherwing	0.7%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	56.9%	+6.6
Fire Arcane	0.7%	6	4-0-2	83.3%	70.0%	61.0%	+5.9
Fire Ravishing Mill	0.7%	9	5-3-1	61.1%	57.7%	60.6%	+4.9
Fire Tera Mage	0.7%	7	5-2-0	71.4%	63.6%	57.6%	+3.8
Water Neos	0.7%	5	4-0-1	90.0%	72.2%	67.2%	+9.9
Water Tera Mage	0.7%	9	7-2-0	77.8%	69.2%	56.8%	+3.1
Wind Astra Cleric	0.7%	3	3-0-0	100.0%	71.4%	62.4%	+9.2
Wind Razorgale	0.7%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Neos	0.4%	4	2-1-1	62.5%	56.2%	53.7%	+2.4
Water Astra Cleric	0.4%	4	2-1-1	62.5%	56.2%	57.7%	+4.9
Water Beast	0.4%	3	3-0-0	100.0%	71.4%	64.5%	+10.8
Water Ravishing Mill	0.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	42.2%	-12.5
Water Slimes	0.4%	4	1-2-1	37.5%	43.8%	42.8%	-4.6
Water Tera Cleric	0.4%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	61.8%	+11.3
Water Umbra Guardian	0.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Byakko	0.4%	4	3-1-0	75.0%	62.5%	52.8%	+1.8
Wind Ciel	0.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Exia	0.4%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.3%	+1.3
Wind Lorraine	0.4%	5	2-3-0	40.0%	44.4%	60.3%	+6.0
Wind Slice & Dice	0.4%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	53.5%	+5.5
Wind Umbra Ranger	0.4%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	59.0%	+8.6

Decklists · 112 from this event

The 112 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 169 mirror matches (7 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 34 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Rending Flames, Incapacitate, Ghosts of Pendragon. Losers more often ran: Unyielding Wraithguard, Ciel, Mirage's Grave, Manxome Armoire.

↑ Played more by winners

Rending Flames

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 169 mirrors: the winner ran more in 49, the loser ran more in 25, both ran the same in 95.

Incapacitate

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 169 mirrors: the winner ran more in 49, the loser ran more in 28, both ran the same in 92.

Ghosts of Pendragon

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 169 mirrors: the winner ran more in 38, the loser ran more in 21, both ran the same in 110.

Lorraine, Wandering Warrior

Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 169 mirrors: the winner ran more in 42, the loser ran more in 26, both ran the same in 101.

Fluffy Shopkeep

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.8.

Of 169 mirrors: the winner ran more in 50, the loser ran more in 35, both ran the same in 84.

Lorraine, Blademaster

Winning decks ran 0.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 169 mirrors: the winner ran more in 36, the loser ran more in 21, both ran the same in 112.

↓ Played more by losers

Unyielding Wraithguard

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.

Of 169 mirrors: the loser ran more in 33, the winner ran more in 12, both ran the same in 124.