EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DX DTR Regionals Singapore.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Neos | 3 | 1.4% | 24 | 66.7% | 57.8% | 56.5% | 54.2% | 1326 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 30 | 14.1% | 177 | 59.6% | 55.5% | 56.4% | 53.8% | 1338 | — |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 75.0% | 61.0% | 56.1% | 54.4% | 1493 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 6 | 2.8% | 47 | 62.8% | 55.3% | 55.7% | 52.8% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 0.9% | 11 | 54.5% | 59.3% | 54.7% | 57.3% | 1245 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.7% | 53.3% | 55.7% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 0.9% | 15 | 60.0% | 65.4% | 53.2% | 56.1% | 1311 | — |
| 8 | Wind Genbu | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 57.4% | 52.1% | 55.2% | 1279 | — |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 13 | 6.1% | 79 | 56.3% | 59.4% | 51.3% | 53.8% | 1302 | — |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 11 | 5.2% | 69 | 47.8% | 46.5% | 51.2% | 50.0% | 1322 | — |
| 11 | Water Allies | 5 | 2.3% | 32 | 50.0% | 54.9% | 51.1% | 53.1% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 1.4% | 23 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 1370 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 6 | 2.8% | 36 | 47.2% | 47.1% | 50.4% | 50.4% | 1273 | — |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 11 | 5.2% | 68 | 50.0% | 48.8% | 50.2% | 50.4% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 31 | 14.6% | 186 | 50.5% | 49.3% | 49.7% | 49.3% | 1311 | — |
| 16 | Wind Arcane | 3 | 1.4% | 18 | 47.2% | 45.7% | 48.8% | 49.3% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Exia Jin | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.8% | 48.5% | 46.4% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Aggro | 14 | 6.6% | 84 | 48.2% | 45.6% | 48.2% | 46.7% | 1306 | — |
| 19 | Wind Seiryuu | 22 | 10.3% | 120 | 48.3% | 47.0% | 47.7% | 47.4% | 1296 | — |
| 20 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 5 | 2.3% | 31 | 46.8% | 57.5% | 47.2% | 52.6% | 1287 | — |
| 21 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 1.4% | 19 | 52.6% | 56.7% | 46.8% | 49.2% | 1317 | — |
| 22 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.3% | 46.6% | 48.3% | 1329 | — |
| 23 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 46.4% | 49.6% | 1320 | — |
| 24 | Wind Razorgale | 9 | 4.2% | 50 | 42.0% | 43.0% | 45.3% | 45.7% | 1275 | — |
| 25 | Wind Shadowstrike | 11 | 5.2% | 51 | 39.2% | 45.5% | 45.2% | 48.7% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 46.3% | 44.7% | 46.6% | 1238 | — |
| 27 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.5% | 44.2% | 46.1% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 6 | 2.8% | 33 | 36.4% | 47.8% | 43.4% | 48.9% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Wind Diana | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.6% | 40.9% | 45.5% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.7% | 40.5% | 41.8% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 18.8% | 26.4% | 40.2% | 39.9% | 1249 | — |
| 32 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.9% | 40.0% | 43.6% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Water Astra Ranger | 3 | 1.4% | 14 | 25.0% | 19.6% | 40.0% | 34.3% | 1252 | — |
| 34 | Fire Suited | 2 | 0.9% | 9 | 22.2% | 43.3% | 38.3% | 43.1% | 1064 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 39.1% | 35.1% | 43.0% | 1083 | ↓ low |