Fire AggroTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
decks
10
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
70
30-36-4
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1388
· range 1085–1488
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1233
Q3 1408
1694
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 46.4% | -1.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 54.2% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.5% | -5.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.2% | -17.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.1% | +7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 22.1% | -16.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
