Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Akihabara Regional
decks
30
(9.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
178
94-76-8
overall winrate
55.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1339
· median 1347
· range 1100–1563
(30 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1233
Q3 1408
1694
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 45 | 24-19-2 | 55.6% | 55.1% | 52.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 17 | 5-12-0 | 29.4% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 11 | 6-3-2 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 15 | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 47.8% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.3% | -2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 34.2% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 56.4% | +3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 33.5% | -9.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 69.6% | +11.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.1% | +11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 52.1% | +1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.1% | +18.3 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 65.9% | +9.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +3.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 30 from this event
The 30 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 17 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Escape the Wreckage, Sword of Seeking, Cremation Ritual. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Resolute Stand, Spirit Blade: Ascension.
Escape the Wreckage
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 5.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Nimue, Cursed Touch
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Varuckan Acolyte
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 73 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasty Messenger | -0.47 | 1 | 9 | 4 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.41 | 1 | 8 | 8 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.41 | 8 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.35 | 1 | 7 | 9 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.35 | 2 | 8 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.29 | 2 | 7 | 4 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.29 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.24 | 8 | 4 | 5 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.24 | 6 | 2 | 9 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.24 | 0 | 4 | 11 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.18 | 3 | 0 | 14 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.18 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.12 | 4 | 6 | 5 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 15 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Four of Hearts | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bandage Wound | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.06 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |
| Floating Peace | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.06 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 12 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 8 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |