Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 37.4% | -5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 46.9% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 43.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.3% | -2.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconnaissance Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |