Fire OblationTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 13 | 4-5-4 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 47.0% | -1.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.5% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.2% | -16.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.9% | -7.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Savage Attack | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |