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Wind Astra ClericTier 2

at Akihabara Regional

decks
9 (2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
58 29-22-7
overall winrate
56.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1% avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
53.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311 · median 1357 · range 1155–1402 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
988 Q1 1233 Q3 1408 1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 17.5% 9 5-2-2 66.7% 61.5% 54.6% +2.1
Wind Seiryuu 10.2% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 41.9% -5.2
Fire Crux Mage 9.6% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 66.5% +9.5
Wind Shadowstrike 6.4% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 46.9% -2.0
Fire Suzaku 5.1% 0
Water Allies 4.1% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 64.7% +11.0
Water Aetherwing 3.5% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 34.1% -10.2
Fire Aggro 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.1
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.6% +10.2
Fire Oblation 2.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.5
Water Genbu 2.5% 6 0-4-2 16.7% 30.0% 35.9% -7.5
Wind Razorgale 2.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 73.2% +22.3
Fire Crux Merlin 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.3% +2.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.7
Wind Allies 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.6
Wind Arcane 2.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.0% +3.8
Water Fractal 1.9% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.7% -2.5
Fire Slimes 1.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 65.3% +11.4
Fire Suited 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.5
Water Umbra Guardian 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.0% -11.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.0
Fire Arcane 0.6% 0
Fire Tera Mage 0.6% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.8% +18.9
Water Ravishing Mill 0.6% 0
Wind Ciel 0.6% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 0.6% 0
Fire Exia 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.8% +14.0
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 0
Slimes 0.3% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.3% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.3% 0
Water Neos 0.3% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.3% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 0
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.3% 0
Wind Umbra Guardian 0.3% 0
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 0
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Regenerate, Horticounter. Losers more often ran: Ravaging Tempest, Scout the Land, Beseech the Winds.

Played more by winners
Regenerate
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Horticounter
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Ravaging Tempest
Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Scout the Land
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Beseech the Winds
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ravaging Tempest -1.00 0 3 0
Resolute Stand -0.67 0 2 1
Stellaria Shower +0.67 2 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.67 2 0 0
Arrow Trap -0.67 0 2 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.67 2 0 0
Scout the Land -0.33 1 2 0
Astral Seal +0.33 1 0 2
Humpty Dumpty, Fate's Fall -0.33 0 1 0
Spellshield: Astra +0.33 1 0 2
Beseech the Winds -0.33 1 2 0
Necklace of Foresight -0.33 0 1 1
Chalice of Blood +0.33 1 0 2
Regenerate +0.33 2 1 0
Spirit of Serene Wind +0.33 1 0 2
Nascent Barrier +0.33 1 0 2
Horticounter +0.33 2 1 0
Lunar Seer +0.33 1 0 1
Fragmented Spirit of Wind -0.33 0 1 0
Dawn's Reversal -0.33 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.33 1 0 0
Hide in Bush +0.33 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace -0.33 0 1 0
Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs -0.33 0 1 0
Mnemonic Charm -0.33 0 1 0
Orb of Glitter -0.33 0 1 0
Meteor Strike +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/39202/archetypes/Wind Astra Cleric