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Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

at Akihabara Regional

decks
55 (17.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
324 150-145-29
overall winrate
50.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6% avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
49.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312 · median 1309 · range 1131–1624 (55 pilots with an ELO rating)
988 Q1 1233 Q3 1408 1694
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 10.2% 35 13-15-7 47.1% 47.4% 48.2% -0.7
Fire Crux Mage 9.6% 45 19-24-2 44.4% 44.9% 45.5% -1.6
Wind Shadowstrike 6.4% 20 11-9-0 55.0% 54.2% 55.4% +2.1
Fire Suzaku 5.1% 20 11-9-0 55.0% 54.2% 53.3% +1.3
Water Allies 4.1% 21 5-14-2 28.6% 32.0% 28.1% -8.3
Water Aetherwing 3.5% 15 3-11-1 23.3% 28.9% 26.8% -9.4
Fire Aggro 3.2% 10 6-3-1 65.0% 60.7% 53.6% +1.6
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.2% 12 7-4-1 62.5% 59.4% 62.6% +5.4
Wind Astra Cleric 2.9% 9 2-5-2 33.3% 38.5% 45.4% -2.1
Fire Oblation 2.5% 13 5-4-4 53.8% 52.9% 53.0% +1.2
Water Genbu 2.5% 8 1-6-1 18.8% 29.2% 32.3% -8.5
Wind Razorgale 2.5% 7 6-1-0 85.7% 72.7% 74.7% +12.4
Fire Crux Merlin 2.2% 7 5-1-1 78.6% 68.2% 77.7% +13.9
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.2% 7 1-6-0 14.3% 27.3% 33.4% -8.3
Wind Allies 2.2% 8 7-1-0 87.5% 75.0% 70.6% +9.9
Wind Arcane 2.2% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 41.9% -4.1
Water Fractal 1.9% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 51.7% +1.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.6% 9 4-4-1 50.0% 50.0% 55.4% +2.5
Fire Slimes 1.6% 9 5-4-0 55.6% 53.8% 47.2% -1.3
Fire Suited 1.6% 8 6-2-0 75.0% 66.7% 58.7% +4.2
Water Umbra Guardian 1.6% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +0.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 8 5-3-0 62.5% 58.3% 61.8% +5.7
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.3% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 43.9% -3.9
Fire Arcane 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.4
Fire Tera Mage 0.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.5% +7.2
Water Astra Ranger 0.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 64.1% +10.5
Water Ravishing Mill 0.6% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 55.3% +3.4
Wind Ciel 0.6% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 66.1% +9.2
Wind Luxem Zander 0.6% 4 0-2-2 25.0% 37.5% 45.0% -3.2
Fire Exia 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.9% -11.3
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 51.6% +1.2
Slimes 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.7% +20.3
Water Crux Lorraine 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.9% -5.0
Water Crux Mage 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Water Neos 0.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.1% -3.0
Water Tera Cleric 0.3% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 68.7% +14.0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.4% +19.9
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 43.6% -6.1
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Wind Umbra Guardian 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Decklists · 55 from this event

The 55 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 40 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 8 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Reduce to Ash, Immolation Trap. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Undying Dreams, Spirit Blade: Ascension.

↑ Played more by winners
Heavenly Guide
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 40 mirrors: the winner ran more in 19, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 12.
Reduce to Ash
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.6 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.
Of 40 mirrors: the winner ran more in 17, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 14.
Immolation Trap
Immolation Trap
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.
Of 40 mirrors: the winner ran more in 16, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 15.
Regal Inquisition
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 1.1 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 40 mirrors: the winner ran more in 16, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 15.
Rending Flames
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.
Of 40 mirrors: the winner ran more in 17, the loser ran more in 10, both ran the same in 13.
Cremation Ritual
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.4 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.
Of 40 mirrors: the winner ran more in 15, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 16.
↓ Played more by losers
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 1.9.
Of 40 mirrors: the loser ran more in 18, the winner ran more in 6, both ran the same in 16.
Undying Dreams
Undying Dreams
Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.9.
Of 40 mirrors: the loser ran more in 14, the winner ran more in 6, both ran the same in 20.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 3.2.
Of 40 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 24.
Flame Sweep
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 3.9 copies on average, winning decks 3.7.
Of 40 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 30.
Drawn Blade
Drawn Blade
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 40 mirrors: the loser ran more in 16, the winner ran more in 10, both ran the same in 14.
Staggering Strike
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 40 mirrors: the loser ran more in 12, the winner ran more in 7, both ran the same in 21.
Show all 64 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -0.30 6 18 14
Heavenly Guide +0.25 19 9 1
Reduce to Ash +0.20 17 9 14
Undying Dreams -0.20 6 14 18
Immolation Trap +0.17 16 9 14
Regal Inquisition +0.17 16 9 5
Rending Flames +0.17 17 10 13
Cremation Ritual +0.15 15 9 16
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.15 5 11 24
Flame Sweep -0.15 2 8 30
Drawn Blade -0.15 10 16 3
Honorable Vanguard +0.15 14 8 2
Three of Hearts +0.12 5 0 35
Staggering Strike -0.12 7 12 2
Sword of Seeking +0.10 7 3 29
Turbo Charge -0.10 5 9 25
Crystallized Destiny +0.10 13 9 18
Surreptitious Scheme -0.10 11 15 1
Hone by Fire +0.10 12 8 4
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.10 7 11 4
Under Fire -0.10 6 10 1
Incapacitate -0.07 11 14 11
Escape the Wreckage -0.07 10 13 13
Devastating Blow -0.07 10 13 17
Fluffy Shopkeep -0.07 8 11 21
Flame-Rune Swordsman -0.07 6 9 0
Spurn to Ash +0.07 3 0 0
Tariff Ring -0.07 0 3 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.07 0 3 0
Smoke Out +0.05 13 11 9
Hasty Messenger +0.05 10 8 2
Sword Saint's Vow +0.05 3 1 1
Tempered Steel +0.05 5 3 1
Votive Runeblade -0.05 0 2 1
Annul Spell +0.05 3 1 0
Blazing Throw +0.05 3 1 1
Varuckan Acolyte +0.05 5 3 1
Fast Cure +0.05 2 0 0
Duplicitous Replication +0.05 2 0 0
Spirit Blade: Dispersion -0.05 0 2 0
Castling Boon -0.05 0 2 0
Resolute Stand -0.03 6 7 27
Intensified Pyre +0.03 4 3 0
Backup Charger -0.03 0 1 39
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.03 2 3 35
Nullifying Lantern +0.03 13 12 4
Nullifying Mirror -0.03 4 5 1
Varuck, Smoldering Spire +0.03 11 10 12
Vengeful Paramour -0.03 0 1 0
Favorable Winds -0.03 2 3 0
Spark Alight -0.03 0 1 0
Yuan Shao, Crown General +0.03 2 1 1
Flamewreath Call -0.03 1 2 0
Reckoning's Wake +0.03 1 0 0
Disenchant -0.03 1 2 0
Deflecting Edge -0.03 0 1 0
Embercrypt Burn -0.03 0 1 0
Meltdown -0.03 0 1 0
Library Witch -0.03 0 1 0
Pelagic Fatestone -0.03 0 1 0
Sword of Shadows +0.00 11 11 16
Crux Sight +0.00 10 10 2
Evercurrent Raider +0.00 7 7 0
Chilling Touch +0.00 2 2 0

JSON: /api/events/39202/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine