Water GenbuTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 67.7% | +8.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 30.4% | -11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 46.5% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | -10.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 6 | 4-0-2 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.1% | +7.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.4% | +11.5 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |