Water FractalTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |