Wind AlliesTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 29.4% | -9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.1% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 40.7% | -5.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chrysalis, Hazy Caterpillar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |