Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 56.1% | +3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.2% | +10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rally the Peasants | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |