Water AlliesTier 1
at Akihabara Regional
decks
13
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
96
49-36-11
overall winrate
56.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1393
· median 1369
· range 1203–1668
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1233
Q3 1408
1694
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 21 | 14-5-2 | 71.4% | 68.0% | 71.9% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 20 | 9-5-6 | 60.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.7% | +2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -7.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.7% | +2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.3% | -11.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
