← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Fire AggroTier 1
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 9 | 2-5-2 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 46.7% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 69.4% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.0% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Amethyst's Glow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crackling Incineration | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Brilliant Vestige | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shardforged Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |