← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
decks
20
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
114
50-49-15
overall winrate
50.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1324
· median 1311
· range 1068–1668
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1182
Q3 1350
1685
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 16 | 10-4-2 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 60.5% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 34.3% | -7.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 62.0% | +5.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 53.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 30.6% | -9.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 36.4% | -6.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 42.6% | -3.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -11.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.0% | -7.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.3% | +15.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 20 from this event
The 20 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Veiling Breeze, Zephyr, Umbra Sight. Losers more often ran: Topsy Decree, Reclaim, Stifling Trap.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Umbra Sight
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Cry for Help
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Penumbral Waltz
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Calming Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 3.
Topsy Decree
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.9.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 3.
Slice and Dice
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Reclaim | -0.17 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.17 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Diablerie | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Abnegation | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Final Stroke | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |