← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 63.6% | +6.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.0% | -27.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.8% | -12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | -10.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |