← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Wind Umbra AliceTier 3
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
decks
1
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
44.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1115
· median 1115
· range 1115–1115
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1182
Q3 1350
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
