← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Fire OblationTier 2
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Twisted Verdict | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |