← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
decks
21
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
136
63-46-27
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1290
· median 1316
· range 1091–1443
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1182
Q3 1350
1685
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 16 | 4-10-2 | 31.2% | 35.0% | 39.5% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 13 | 5-5-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 44.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 9 | 5-2-2 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 53.3% | +1.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +4.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 55.0% | +2.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 8 | 4-1-3 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 61.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.1% | -9.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.3% | -6.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.2% | +4.6 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.6% | +13.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Displace, Dream Fairy, Staggering Strike. Losers more often ran: Harness Lightning, Beseech the Winds, Winds of Destiny.
Displace
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Longtail Grovesward
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Royal Oathguard
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Ducal Seal
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Harness Lightning
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Beseech the Winds
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Winds of Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Displace | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Harness Lightning | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Royal Oathguard | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Noble Dissolution | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Byakko's Command | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |