← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
decks
7
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47
24-16-7
overall winrate
58.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1336
· median 1329
· range 1131–1525
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1182
Q3 1350
1685
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 52.1% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 46.4% | -2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
