← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Fire ExiaTier 2
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
decks
5
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
14-13-3
overall winrate
51.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1256
· median 1284
· range 1125–1353
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1182
Q3 1350
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.6% | +13.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.2% | +12.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
