← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Water FractalTier 2
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
decks
2
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-4-3
overall winrate
65.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
53.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1328
· median 1328
· range 1315–1340
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1182
Q3 1350
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
