← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 65.7% | +7.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -6.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.5% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 47.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.0% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.2% | +6.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.0% | -2.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Oblation | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.0% | -22.0 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Regal Inquisition. Losers more often ran: Cremation Ritual.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |