EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Taichung Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Byakko | 2 | 1.2% | 16 | 68.8% | 55.4% | 58.2% | 54.7% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 81.2% | 60.7% | 57.5% | 53.6% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 62.5% | 47.2% | 55.7% | 51.6% | 1312 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 13 | 7.8% | 92 | 55.4% | 51.0% | 54.6% | 52.0% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 7 | 4.2% | 49 | 60.2% | 63.3% | 54.1% | 55.8% | 1259 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 11 | 6.6% | 78 | 55.8% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 52.8% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 1.2% | 13 | 73.1% | 60.2% | 53.6% | 51.7% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Alice | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 62.5% | 46.9% | 53.2% | 50.1% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 0.6% | 9 | 44.4% | 52.9% | 52.6% | 54.4% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Neos | 1 | 0.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 52.4% | 51.1% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 11 | 6.6% | 78 | 55.1% | 54.5% | 52.3% | 52.0% | 1297 | — |
| 12 | Water Slimes | 2 | 1.2% | 14 | 57.1% | 56.6% | 52.3% | 51.9% | 1260 | — |
| 13 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 62.5% | 58.5% | 51.9% | 52.8% | 1243 | — |
| 14 | Water Allies | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 51.9% | 50.4% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 8 | 4.8% | 55 | 51.8% | 50.8% | 51.1% | 51.3% | 1298 | — |
| 16 | Slimes | 2 | 1.2% | 15 | 56.7% | 61.1% | 51.0% | 52.6% | 1242 | — |
| 17 | Water Fractal | 11 | 6.6% | 83 | 53.0% | 51.2% | 50.9% | 49.7% | 1268 | — |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 5 | 3.0% | 38 | 57.9% | 53.2% | 50.9% | 49.8% | 1304 | — |
| 19 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 7 | 4.2% | 47 | 52.1% | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.0% | 1288 | — |
| 20 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.8% | 50.5% | 52.3% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 3 | 1.8% | 22 | 45.5% | 56.5% | 49.2% | 51.1% | 1213 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Jin | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 56.2% | 57.1% | 49.2% | 50.2% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Oblation | 6 | 3.6% | 34 | 48.5% | 44.0% | 48.9% | 46.8% | 1258 | — |
| 24 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 48.9% | 50.2% | 1322 | — |
| 25 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 25.0% | 39.3% | 48.0% | 49.6% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Suzaku | 9 | 5.4% | 62 | 47.6% | 51.5% | 47.9% | 50.2% | 1240 | — |
| 27 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 0.6% | 9 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 47.6% | 46.4% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 3.0% | 39 | 52.6% | 47.9% | 47.2% | 45.9% | 1244 | — |
| 29 | Water Astra Ranger | 4 | 2.4% | 22 | 45.5% | 49.7% | 47.1% | 48.8% | 1279 | — |
| 30 | Wind Shadowstrike | 19 | 11.4% | 121 | 46.3% | 50.1% | 47.1% | 49.6% | 1244 | — |
| 31 | Fire Aggro | 8 | 4.8% | 49 | 42.9% | 36.0% | 46.3% | 43.7% | 1309 | — |
| 32 | Wind Exia | 2 | 1.2% | 9 | 33.3% | 39.3% | 45.6% | 46.1% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Arcane | 3 | 1.8% | 18 | 41.7% | 38.9% | 45.5% | 44.3% | 1290 | — |
| 34 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.6% | 10 | 45.0% | 41.3% | 44.7% | 45.5% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Crux Merlin | 3 | 1.8% | 20 | 42.5% | 41.7% | 44.7% | 44.2% | 1299 | — |
| 36 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 1.8% | 18 | 33.3% | 38.7% | 43.9% | 45.6% | 1224 | — |
| 37 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 2.4% | 27 | 31.5% | 43.9% | 43.6% | 46.8% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Fire Exia | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 28.6% | 46.9% | 43.5% | 47.7% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Fire Suited | 2 | 1.2% | 12 | 50.0% | 39.8% | 43.0% | 42.4% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 40 | Wind Merlin | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.0% | 42.6% | 47.4% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 41 | Wind Chess | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 0.0% | 39.6% | 38.3% | 46.0% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 42 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 0.0% | 39.6% | 38.3% | 46.0% | 945 | ↓ low |