ChessTier 3
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
4
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
10-15-3
overall winrate
41.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1216
· median 1190
· range 1144–1341
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.7% | +28.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
