Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
18
(5.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
140
67-71-2
overall winrate
48.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1330
· median 1359
· range 1158–1484
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 15 | 4-10-1 | 30.0% | 34.2% | 38.0% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 17 | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 57.1% | 62.2% | +4.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 10 | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 28.6% | 36.7% | -6.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 83.3% | +19.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 45.5% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 11 | 9-2-0 | 81.8% | 73.3% | 75.0% | +10.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 18.2% | -23.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 21.8% | -14.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.7% | +9.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.1% | -2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.6% | +2.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -1.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 18 from this event
The 18 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flamme Sorcel, Topsy Decree, Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Spurn to Ash, Abnegation.
Flamme Sorcel
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Devouring Malice
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Umbra Sight
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Spurn to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Abnegation
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Expel the Departed
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Annul Spell
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Abnegation | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tune Up | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavastorm | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Golden Checkmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |